Prioritising Vertebrate Pests on the Brink of Introduction and Establishment Using Bayesian Networks

Lead researcher: Win Kirkpatrick, Department of Agriculture and Food WA,  win.kirkpatrick@agric.wa.gov.au

Prioritisation of pests on the brink of establishing wild populations for risk management is important due to increasingly limited resources. This could be achieved by developing Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), incorporating a range of data and expert opinion, to objectively produce establishment likelihood predictions. The resulting list of species prioritised on the basis of their establishment likelihood and Bomford assessment results would be provided to the Vertebrate Pest Committee. Risk management strategies could then be applied for the prioritised species as detailed in the Australia Pest Animal Strategy.

  • Development of Bayesian Belief Networks to predict the likelihood of establishment in the wild of selected species groups.
  • Prioritisation of species for risk management strategies, by combining establishment likelihood with Bomford assessment results (i.e. establishment risk, pest risk and public safety risk ranks) to produce a threat rating.
  • Extension of species lists to the VPC and affiliated agencies.
  • Production of education and publicity material (e.g. National Pest Alerts) for an agreed group of high-priority species.

This project was funded under the Australian Pest Animal Research Program (APARP).
For more APARP projects, visit: www.pestsmart.org.au/australian-pest-animal-research-program/

Author Australian Pest Animal Research Program (APARP)
Secondary Author Win Kirkpatrick
Year 2012
Volume 2009-10
Institution Department of Agriculture and Food WA
Documents

Full report: Prioritising Vertebrate Pests on the Brink of Introduction and Establishment Using Bayesian Networks  [ 465kb PDF ] 

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